I got here in time to see the replay. No excuses. Got beat by one of the horses who ran with him last time.. But those 3/2 odds are the problem with trip handicapping. The horse went off at 7-1 in last and got beat by three or four of the horses while finishing fifth. Today he goes off at 3/2. Clearly I wasn't the only one who saw what happened in his last race. But 3/2 squeezed all the value out of him. Oh well. Gonna have to come from behind today.
-48.00
+00.00
-48.00
+00.00
This feels like a race where a pretty obvious trip horse is going to take plenty of money. Tunisian Spring (#7) checked in fifth across the wire in that June 8 affair, but he likely would have won that race if not for running into traffic in mid-stretch. He had built up good momentum coming to the quarter pole and Jose Ortiz kept him inside to try and slice through the pack. Unfortunately there was just a wall of horses ahead of him and he had to check, then swing out, and get steadied again before easing up to the finish. The problem with simply upgrading Tunisian Spring is twofold: 1) his trip will likely be built into his price, and 2) he still benefited from a very favorable pace setup. He’s still one of the horses I would want out of that June 8 affair, but I’m concerned he may not offer value.
Hey Michel: this is from David Aragona (NYRA Oddsmaker)on the #7
